Sébastien Lecornu: the eternal “change” without modification of Macronism

Like a broken record. Appointed by a President of the Republic who refuses to change his software, prime ministers succeed one another, with each transfer of power, singing the same refrain. The steps of Matignon will have heard Michel Barnier promise in September 2024 to "do politics differently": "There will also be changes and ruptures in this new chapter."

Then, three months later, his successor François Bayrou swore that he would do everything to "find a new path." And nine months later, this Wednesday, September 10, Sébastien Lecornu proclaimed with his hand on his heart: "We're going to have to change." "We're going to have to make changes. Not just in form, not just in method, but also in substance," he declared.

And yet, since 2024, Emmanuel Macron and his prime ministers have refused to see that there is no majority in the National Assembly to carry out their policies, and continue to prevent debate and disregard national representation. As part of the right wing of Macron's party, how could Sébastien Lecornu convince the opposition not to censor him?

The new Prime Minister promises to hold talks this week with representatives of each party and the unions. Tasked with taking back control of François Bayrou's anti-social budget , he will have to seek alliances and compromises. But the doors appear closed, with all the opposition suggesting Tuesday evening that his time at Matignon was numbered.

During the transfer of power, Sébastien Lecornu remained mysterious about this umpteenth promise of "rupture" – a phrase that Élisabeth Borne and Gabriel Attal, other predecessors at Matignon, both uttered during their declarations of general interest. If he looks to his left, taxing the richest could constitute a shift in Macron's position.

Some are even beginning to resign themselves to it: " We must offer a symbolic victory to the left on the taxation of the wealthiest. We are radically against it and it's a dismal stupidity, but we're going to have to let go, " argues Renaissance MP Sylvain Maillard in Le Figaro.

The Socialists are in the crosshairs. On France Info on Tuesday, the First Secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, did not rule out any options, except for joining the government. "We will judge on a case-by-case basis," he argued, while doubting that Sébastien Lecornu could "break with the policies that have been pursued for the past eight years," a condition for not censoring him.

But it's a safe bet that Sébastien Lecornu, one of the most conservative Macronists, who maintains cordial relations with the National Rally (RN), will seek to give assurances to the far right. Although determined to push Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly, the RN has not completely ruled out negotiations. "We will listen to what Sébastien Lecornu has to offer, without many illusions, however," summarized MP Sébastien Chenu.

Whatever happens, the new prime minister is expected to deliver, and the conflicting demands of parties open to dialogue could quickly evaporate. If the government intends to maintain its austerity policies at all costs, it certainly seems doomed.